Within Popularity
How Bandwagons Grow From Thin Evidence
Information cascades explain how early public choices can drown out later private evidence and make a weak crowd look informed.
On this page
- How early choices trigger later imitation
- Why private knowledge can disappear in a cascade
- Markets, queues, and everyday bandwagon examples
Page outline Jump by section
Introduction
Information cascades help explain how a bandwagon can emerge even when the crowd possesses very little reliable information. In the context of appeal to popularity, the key insight is that widespread agreement may not reflect independent evidence gathered by many people. Instead, it may reflect a chain of imitation in which later individuals copy earlier visible choices and gradually stop relying on their own private knowledge. Once this process begins, a belief can appear strongly supported simply because many people repeat it, even though the apparent consensus originated from a small amount of information or even an early mistake. Research on social learning and informational cascades has shown that collective behaviour can become both highly uniform and surprisingly fragile because it rests on imitation rather than independent verification. [American Economic Association]aeaweb.orgAmerican Economic AssociationInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of in… [IDEAS]ideas.repec.orgv62y2024i3p1040 93IDEAS/RePEcInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of information cascades…
Understanding cascades is important because they reveal a hidden weakness in crowd belief. A large number of people may agree, yet the agreement itself may contain far less information than it appears to contain. This helps explain why popularity is not reliable proof of truth and why bandwagon reasoning can become a logical fallacy. [Scribbr]scribbr.co.ukScribbr What Is Ad Populum Fallacy? | Definition & ExamplesScribbrWhat Is Ad Populum Fallacy? | Definition & Examples - ScribbrJune 20, 2023 — 20 Jun 2023 — Ad populum fallacy is arguing that a cl… [Philosophy Home Page]philosophy.lander.eduPhilosophy Home PageAd Populum: Appeal to PopularityThe ad populum argument claims a conclusion is true because most, all, or even an eli…
How Early Choices Trigger Later Imitation
The classic information cascade model begins with individuals making decisions one after another. Each person possesses some private information, but they can also observe what earlier people have done. The first few decisions therefore carry disproportionate influence because later observers treat those visible choices as clues about what the earlier decision-makers might know. SSRN [IDEAS]ideas.repec.orgv62y2024i3p1040 93IDEAS/RePEcInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of information cascades…
Imagine a sequence of people choosing between two restaurants. The first two customers independently pick Restaurant A. A third customer may privately suspect Restaurant B is better, yet reason that the first two customers probably had information worth trusting. The third customer therefore chooses A. The fourth customer now sees three choices favouring A and becomes even more likely to follow. As the pattern grows, the visible consensus begins to outweigh individual judgement. SSRN [Stanford Network Analysis Project]snap.stanford.eduStanford Network Analysis ProjectA Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change…by S Bikhchandani · 1992 · Cited by 11090 — In…
What makes the mechanism distinctive is that imitation can be individually rational. Participants are not necessarily being gullible. They may be making what appears to be the best decision given the information available to them. Yet when everyone reasons this way, the group can collectively converge on a conclusion that is weakly supported or completely wrong. [American Economic Association]aeaweb.orgAmerican Economic AssociationInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of in… 2arXiv
This is one route by which a bandwagon forms. The growing number of adherents looks like accumulating evidence, but much of that apparent evidence is actually repetition of the same original signal.
Why Private Knowledge Can Disappear in a Cascade
A central feature of information cascades is that private information gradually stops influencing public outcomes. Researchers describe cascades as situations in which people eventually ignore their own information and simply follow observed behaviour. At that point, new knowledge entering the system no longer changes visible decisions. [bpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com]bpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.comInformation cascadesCDNAn information cascade occurs when individuals, having observed the actions and possibly payoffs of those ahead of them, take the same… [SSRN]papers.ssrn.comSSRNA Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change…by S Bikhchandani · 1992 · Cited by 11099 — We argue that localized conform…
This creates a paradox. As more people join the bandwagon, outsiders often become more confident that the crowd must be correct. Yet the opposite may be true. The later participants may not be contributing independent evidence at all. They may merely be echoing earlier choices. A crowd of one thousand people can therefore embody much less information than it appears to contain. [American Economic Association]aeaweb.orgAmerican Economic AssociationInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of in… [SSRN]papers.ssrn.comCascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2023 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of information cascades and social learning, a…
Another important consequence is fragility. Because cascades may be built on a small informational foundation, they can collapse quickly when credible new evidence appears. A belief that seemed overwhelmingly accepted may reverse direction once people realise that others were also following the crowd rather than independently confirming the claim. Researchers have repeatedly highlighted this fragility as one of the defining characteristics of informational cascades. SSRN [IDEAS]ideas.repec.orgv62y2024i3p1040 93IDEAS/RePEcInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of information cascades…
For the study of logical fallacies, this point is crucial. An appeal to popularity assumes that widespread acceptance itself supports a claim. Information cascade theory shows why that assumption can fail: the popularity may not represent many independent judgements at all. [Scribbr]scribbr.co.ukScribbr What Is Ad Populum Fallacy? | Definition & ExamplesScribbrWhat Is Ad Populum Fallacy? | Definition & Examples - ScribbrJune 20, 2023 — 20 Jun 2023 — Ad populum fallacy is arguing that a cl… [Philosophy Home Page]philosophy.lander.eduPhilosophy Home PageAd Populum: Appeal to PopularityThe ad populum argument claims a conclusion is true because most, all, or even an eli…
Markets, Queues, and Everyday Bandwagon Examples
Financial Markets
Financial markets provide some of the most discussed examples of cascade behaviour. Investors often observe what other investors are buying and selling. If enough early participants move in one direction, later investors may interpret those actions as evidence of hidden information. This can contribute to herding behaviour, speculative bubbles, or rapid shifts in market sentiment. The literature on informational cascades has frequently used investment decisions as an illustration of how rational imitation can produce collective errors. [JSTOR]jstor.orgHowever, conventional industrial organiza-.Read moreJSTORSushil Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer and Ivo Welchby S Bikhchandani · 1998 · Cited by 3233 — The theory of informational cascades… [Aaltodoc]aaltodoc.aalto.fiAaltodocA basic theory of rational herd behavior and informational…by N Tuominen · 2017 · Cited by 9 — The basic theories of rational…
Queues and Consumer Choice
Long queues can create a similar effect. A person encountering two otherwise similar cafés may infer that the busier one is superior because many others chose it. Sometimes that inference is correct. However, if the initial crowd formed for accidental reasons—a tour group arriving first, for example—later customers may reinforce the pattern simply by interpreting popularity as quality. [American Economic Association]aeaweb.orgAmerican Economic AssociationInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of in…
The resulting queue appears to confirm the café’s excellence, but the evidence may largely consist of previous people responding to the same queue.
Fashion, Fads, and Cultural Trends
The original informational cascade literature was strongly concerned with explaining fashions, customs, and fads. Certain styles, products, or cultural practices may spread because people observe adoption by others and infer that the adopters possess valuable information. Over time, the visible popularity of the trend becomes its own justification, even when many participants cannot independently explain why it is preferable. SSRN [IDEAS]ideas.repec.orgv62y2024i3p1040 93IDEAS/RePEcInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of information cascades…
Online Information and Rumours
Social media has made cascade dynamics especially visible. Users often judge credibility through likes, shares, reposts, and endorsements. A claim that gains early traction can appear increasingly trustworthy because many others seem to accept it. Yet the visible consensus may reflect repeated copying rather than independent verification. Research on social learning highlights how observation of others can both aggregate useful information and amplify mistaken beliefs. [American Economic Association]aeaweb.orgAmerican Economic AssociationInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of in… [SSRN]papers.ssrn.comCascades in Banerjee (1992), Bikhchandani…by I Welch · 1992 · Cited by 1 — The early information cascades paper of Banerjee (1992) is…
What Cascades Reveal About Appeal to Popularity
Information cascades do not prove that crowds are usually wrong. Often, observing others is a sensible shortcut. Social learning allows information to spread efficiently, and many collective judgements are accurate. The lesson is narrower and more important: popularity alone does not tell us how much independent evidence stands behind a belief. [American Economic Association]aeaweb.orgAmerican Economic AssociationInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of in… [IDEAS]ideas.repec.orgv62y2024i3p1040 93IDEAS/RePEcInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of information cascades…
When evaluating a popular claim, the critical question is not merely how many people believe it, but how those people reached that belief. If the apparent consensus arose through a cascade, then thousands of endorsements may ultimately trace back to a small number of early signals. What looks like strong evidence may therefore be little more than a chain of imitation. SSRN [Stanford Network Analysis Project]snap.stanford.eduStanford Network Analysis ProjectA Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change…by S Bikhchandani · 1992 · Cited by 11090 — In…
This is why information cascades occupy an important place in understanding appeal to popularity. They provide a concrete mechanism showing how large crowds can appear informed even when the underlying evidence is thin, making the bandwagon effect persuasive without making it logically sound. [Scribbr]scribbr.co.ukScribbr What Is Ad Populum Fallacy? | Definition & ExamplesScribbrWhat Is Ad Populum Fallacy? | Definition & Examples - ScribbrJune 20, 2023 — 20 Jun 2023 — Ad populum fallacy is arguing that a cl… [SSRN]papers.ssrn.comSSRNA Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change…by S Bikhchandani · 1992 · Cited by 11099 — We argue that localized conform…
Amazon book picks
Further Reading
Books and field guides related to How Bandwagons Grow From Thin Evidence. Use these as the next step if you want deeper reading beyond the article.
The Wisdom of Crowds
Explains when crowds succeed and when herd effects undermine judgment.
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Provides foundations for understanding cascade-driven decisions.
eBay marketplace picks
Marketplace Samples
Example marketplace items related to this page. Use the search link to explore similar finds on eBay.
Endnotes
-
Source: ideas.repec.org
Title: v62y2024i3p1040 93
Link: https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jeclit/v62y2024i3p1040-93.htmlSource snippet
IDEAS/RePEcInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of information cascades...
-
Source: papers.ssrn.com
Link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1286306Source snippet
SSRNA Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change...by S Bikhchandani · 1992 · Cited by 11099 — We argue that localized conform...
-
Source: ideas.repec.org
Title: v100y1992i5p992 1026
Link: https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v100y1992i5p992-1026.htmlSource snippet
IDEAS/RePEcA Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change...by S Bikhchandani · 1992 · Cited by 11108 — An informational cascade...
-
Source: snap.stanford.edu
Link: https://snap.stanford.edu/class/cs224w-readings/bikhchandani92fads.pdfSource snippet
Stanford Network Analysis ProjectA Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change...by S Bikhchandani · 1992 · Cited by 11090 — In...
-
Source: arxiv.org
Title: arXiv Information Cascades and Social Learning
Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.11044Source snippet
Authors:Sushil Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer, Omer Tamuz, Ivo Welch. View a PDF of the paper...Read more...
-
Source: bpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com
Title: Information cascades
Link: https://bpb-us-e2.wpmucdn.com/sites.uci.edu/dist/c/362/files/2017/01/Palgrave-information-cascades-Online-version.pdfSource snippet
CDNAn information cascade occurs when individuals, having observed the actions and possibly payoffs of those ahead of them, take the same...
-
Source: econpapers.repec.org
Title: Sushil Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer and Ivo Welch.Read more
Link: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc%3Aucp%3Ajpolec%3Av%3A100%3Ay%3A1992%3Ai%3A5%3Ap%3A992-1026Source snippet
EconPapersA Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change...by S Bikhchandani · 1992 · Cited by 11076 — A Theory of Fads, Fashion...
-
Source: papers.ssrn.com
Link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3851678Source snippet
Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2023 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of information cascades and social learning, a...
-
Source: jstor.org
Title: However, conventional industrial organiza-.Read more
Link: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2647037Source snippet
JSTORSushil Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer and Ivo Welchby S Bikhchandani · 1998 · Cited by 3233 — The theory of informational cascades...
-
Source: arxiv.org
Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.00765 -
Source: papers.ssrn.com
Link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4779644Source snippet
Cascades in Banerjee (1992), Bikhchandani...by I Welch · 1992 · Cited by 1 — The early information cascades paper of Banerjee (1992) is...
-
Source: ideas.repec.org
Link: https://ideas.repec.org/p/cla/levarc/1193.htmlSource snippet
theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as...by S Bikhchandani · 2010 · Cited by 4 — The authors argue that localized confor...
-
Source: youtube.com
Title: The Bandwagon Effect: How Popularity Drives Behavior (2 Minutes)
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9S5nFHcvSASource snippet
Information Cascade...
-
Source: youtube.com
Title: Information Cascade
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHE3pBbc_zI -
Source: aeaweb.org
Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%2Fjel.20241472Source snippet
American Economic AssociationInformation Cascades and Social Learningby S Bikhchandani · 2024 · Cited by 190 — We review the theory of in...
-
Source: scribbr.co.uk
Title: Scribbr What Is Ad Populum Fallacy? | Definition & Examples
Link: https://www.scribbr.co.uk/fallacy/the-ad-populum-fallacy/Source snippet
ScribbrWhat Is Ad Populum Fallacy? | Definition & Examples - ScribbrJune 20, 2023 — 20 Jun 2023 — Ad populum fallacy is arguing that a cl...
Published: June 20, 2023
-
Source: philosophy.lander.edu
Link: https://philosophy.lander.edu/logic/popular.htmlSource snippet
Philosophy Home PageAd Populum: Appeal to PopularityThe ad populum argument claims a conclusion is true because most, all, or even an eli...
-
Source: aeaweb.org
Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%2Fjep.12.3.151Source snippet
American Economic AssociationLearning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads...by S Bikhchandani · 1998 · Cited by 3238 — Learni...
-
Source: aaltodoc.aalto.fi
Link: https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/items/cc635ac1-d964-4e68-aaab-a32ccebb8104Source snippet
AaltodocA basic theory of rational herd behavior and informational...by N Tuominen · 2017 · Cited by 9 — The basic theories of rational...
-
Source: Wikipedia
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InformationSource snippet
InformationInformation is an abstract concept that refers to something which has the power to inform. At the most fundamental level, i...
-
Source: dictionary.cambridge.org
Link: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/informationSource snippet
| English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary7 days ago — Information is an uncountable noun meaning 'facts about someone or something'. It is...
-
Source: pages.gseis.ucla.edu
Link: https://pages.gseis.ucla.edu/faculty/bates/articles/information.htmlSource snippet
J. Batesby CRC Press — Roughly speaking, information is that commodity capable of yielding knowledge, and what information a signal carri...
-
Source: gymglish.com
Link: https://www.gymglish.com/en/gymglish/english-translation/informationSource snippet
Definition & MeaningInformation definition in English...
Additional References
-
Source: everydayconcepts.io
Link: https://everydayconcepts.io/information-cascadeSource snippet
Information CascadeEconomists Sushil Bikhchandani, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch formalized the theory in their 1992 paper "A Theory o...
-
Source: merriam-webster.com
Link: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/informationSource snippet
INFORMATION Definition & Meaning6 days ago — The meaning of INFORMATION is knowledge gained from investigation, study, or instruction. Ho...
-
Source: logicallyfallacious.com
Link: https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-PopularitySource snippet
Appeal to PopularityUsing the popularity of a premise or proposition as evidence for its truthfulness. This is a fallacy which is very di...
-
Source: theinformation.com
Link: https://www.theinformation.com/ -
Source: deusdiapente.wordpress.com
Link: https://deusdiapente.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/logical-fallacies-as-weak-bayesian-evidence-argumentum-ad-populum-appeal-to-popularity/Source snippet
Fallacies As Weak Bayesian Evidence3 Sept 2012 — Appeal to popularity, of course, is a logical fallacy because in bare bones logic the co...
-
Source: youtube.com
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n14qsp2C9Tw -
Source: blogs.cornell.edu
Title: informational cascades and related thoughts on local rationality
Link: https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2021/11/05/informational-cascades-and-related-thoughts-on-local-rationality/Source snippet
Cascades and Related Thoughts on Local...5 Nov 2021 — Informational cascade is explained as a model with systemic fragility which to cer...
-
Source: sites.uci.edu
Link: https://sites.uci.edu/dhirshle/files/2011/02/Learning-from-the-Behavior-of-Others-Conformity-Fads-and-Informational-Cascades.pdfSource snippet
UCI SitesConformity, Fads, and Informational Cascadesby S Bikhchandani · 1998 · Cited by 3233 — Learning from the Behavior of Others: Con...
-
Source: facebook.com
Link: https://www.facebook.com/charles.ebune/posts/argumentum-ad-populum-also-known-as-the-appeal-to-the-people-or-bandwagon-fallac/25684558261152363/Source snippet
y where something is claimed to be true or good simply because...Read more...
-
Source: fallacyguide.com
Link: https://fallacyguide.com/fallacies/appeal-to-popularitySource snippet
The Fallacy GuideAppeal to Popularity Fallacy: Definition, Examples & How to Fix ItAppeals to popularity turn headcount into evidence and...
Topic Tree