Within Safety Claims
When Safety Statistics Compare the Wrong Things
A favorable safety statistic can mislead when the comparison groups do not measure the same kind of crash or driving condition.
On this page
- Why aggregate crash numbers can look reassuring
- How mismatched datasets change the claim
- What supervision warnings reveal about autonomy claims
Page outline Jump by section
Introduction
Tesla’s safety statistics are frequently cited in debates about driver-assistance systems, but the key question is not whether the numbers are large or small. The critical question is whether the datasets being compared measure the same thing. Within discussions of logical fallacies and product-safety responses, this matters because an impressive safety figure can function as a red herring if it shifts attention away from whether the comparison itself is valid.
Tesla has repeatedly published figures suggesting that vehicles using Autopilot or Full Self-Driving (Supervised) experience crashes far less often than average U.S. drivers. Critics, however, argue that some of these comparisons combine different crash definitions, different driving environments, and different levels of driver involvement. When the comparison groups are not aligned, the resulting safety claim may sound persuasive while providing little evidence about the question being asked.[Tesla]tesla.comTesla refers…Read more…[Reuters]reuters.comWhy Tesla's AI trainers don't trust its self-driving tech2 days ago — The review found several invalid data comparisons underlying…
Why Aggregate Crash Numbers Can Look Reassuring
Tesla’s public safety reports often present crash rates as “miles driven between crashes” and compare those figures with national crash statistics. On the surface, the difference can appear dramatic. For example, Tesla has reported millions of miles between crashes when Autopilot is engaged, compared with lower mileage figures derived from broader U.S. crash data.[TESLARATI]teslarati.comTesla's new Safety Report shows Autopilot is nine times…Oct 22, 2025 — In Q3 2025, we recorded 1 crash for every 6.36 million…
The problem is that aggregate numbers hide important differences:
- Autopilot is used heavily on controlled-access motorways, which are generally safer than urban roads.
- Drivers who purchase and activate advanced driver-assistance features may differ from the average driving population.
- Weather, traffic density, vehicle age, and road type can vary substantially between comparison groups.
- Different datasets may count different kinds of crashes.
A favourable aggregate statistic can therefore create the impression that one factor—such as driver-assistance software—is solely responsible for the observed difference when multiple other factors may contribute. Researchers have long noted that meaningful safety comparisons require matching exposure conditions as closely as possible.[arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash RatesarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash Rates
From a logical-fallacy perspective, the risk is that the audience focuses on the reassuring headline number rather than examining whether the underlying comparison answers the original safety question.
How Mismatched Datasets Change the Claim
The most significant criticism of Tesla’s recent safety claims concerns the definition of a crash.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving safety page explains that its “major collision” metric counts crashes involving airbag deployment or other irreversible restraint activation. In other words, the metric focuses on relatively severe crashes rather than all crashes.[Tesla]tesla.comTesla refers…Read more…
Researchers interviewed by Reuters argued that Tesla then compared those severe-crash figures with broader government crash datasets that include many less severe collisions. According to Reuters’ review, multiple safety researchers considered this an invalid comparison because the numerator and denominator were not measuring equivalent events. They characterised the resulting claim as potentially misleading because the datasets were not aligned.[Reuters]reuters.comUS ends probe into Tesla remote driving feature afterUS ends probe into Tesla remote driving feature after…April 6, 2026 — 6 Apr 2026 — Tesla's driver-assistance and self-driving f…
The issue is not merely technical. A comparison can change meaning depending on what is counted:
QuestionDataset ADataset BHow often do severe crashes occur?Airbag-deployment crashesAirbag-deployment crashesHow often do any crashes occur?All crashesAll crashesProblematic comparisonAirbag-deployment crashesAll crashes
If one side counts only severe collisions while the other counts collisions of many different severities, the resulting ratio may exaggerate apparent safety performance.
Researchers examining Tesla’s revised safety reporting methods have raised similar concerns about changing crash definitions over time and excluding incidents that do not meet particular thresholds. They argue that methodological changes can significantly affect reported crash rates and make historical comparisons difficult.[arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash RatesarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash Rates
This is a classic example of how a statistic can be numerically accurate yet rhetorically misleading. The fallacy does not require fabricated data; it can arise when unlike quantities are presented as though they were directly comparable.
Why Similar Conditions Matter More Than Large Numbers
A useful safety comparison attempts to match vehicles, roads, crash types, and operating conditions.
One reason researchers emphasise this point is that safety outcomes depend heavily on context. A vehicle driven primarily on motorways faces a different risk profile from one operating on city streets. Likewise, comparing supervised driver-assistance systems with average national driving data may obscure differences in driver responsibility and environment.[arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash RatesarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash Rates
The contrast becomes clearer when looking at examples of safety research that explicitly try to align datasets. Published analyses of automated-driving performance have attempted to match road types, locations, vehicle categories, crash severities, and crash classifications before drawing conclusions. Researchers describe such alignment as necessary for meaningful benchmarking.[arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash RatesarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash Rates
Whether one agrees with the conclusions of those studies or not, the methodological principle is important: comparable claims require comparable data.
Without that alignment, a large safety advantage may reflect differences in exposure rather than differences in technology.
What Supervision Warnings Reveal About Autonomy Claims
Another source of confusion arises from the distinction between supervised driver-assistance and true autonomous driving.
Tesla’s systems require human supervision and intervention when necessary. Regulators have repeatedly emphasised that currently deployed systems still depend on driver attention. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) also cautions against treating today’s assistance systems as equivalent to fully autonomous vehicles.[NHTSA]nhtsa.govAutomated Vehicle SafetyGet info on automated driving systems, also referred to as automated vehicles and "self-driving" cars, and l…
This matters because safety claims are sometimes interpreted as evidence that the vehicle itself is driving safely without meaningful human involvement. Yet if a system’s safety performance depends partly on attentive human oversight, the statistic does not necessarily demonstrate autonomous capability.
Supervision warnings therefore reveal an important distinction:
- A supervised system may achieve a certain safety outcome.
- That outcome does not automatically prove that the software could achieve the same result without human monitoring.
- Crash-rate statistics alone cannot establish how responsibility was shared between driver and system.
This distinction has become increasingly relevant as regulators continue investigating crashes and reported traffic-law violations involving Tesla driver-assistance systems. The existence of such investigations does not prove a system is unsafe, but it does show why careful interpretation of safety statistics remains necessary.[Reuters]reuters.comUS probes driver assistance software in 2.9 million Tesla…9 Oct 2025 — The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration…[Reuters]reuters.comUS safety agency contacts Tesla on robotaxi issues seen in…23 Jun 2025 — The probe covers 2.4 million Tesla vehicles equipped w…
The Logical Fallacy Behind the Numbers
The central fallacy is not that safety statistics are useless. Safety statistics are essential. The problem arises when a favourable number is treated as an answer to a different question.
If critics ask whether a driver-assistance system reduces crashes under particular conditions, a response based on non-equivalent datasets may redirect attention from the validity of the comparison to the impressiveness of the result. The audience hears “our vehicles crash less often” and may stop asking whether the crashes being counted, the roads being driven, and the drivers being compared are actually comparable.
In that sense, mismatched crash comparisons can operate as a sophisticated red herring. The discussion shifts from “Are these equivalent safety measures?” to “Look how good this safety number is.” For evidence-based safety assessment, the first question must be answered before the second has meaning.
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Endnotes
1.
Source: tesla.com
Link:https://www.tesla.com/fsd/safety
Source snippet
Tesla refers...Read more...
2.
Source: reuters.com
Link:https://www.reuters.com/investigations/why-teslas-ai-trainers-dont-trust-its-self-driving-tech-or-its-safety-stats-2026-05-28/
Source snippet
Why Tesla's AI trainers don't trust its self-driving tech2 days ago — The review found several invalid data comparisons underlying...
3.
Source: arxiv.org
Title: arXiv A Note on Tesla’s Revised Safety Report Crash Rates
Link:https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.06187
4.
Source: teslarati.com
Link:https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-new-safety-report-autopilot-nine-times-safer-humans-q3-2025/
Source snippet
Tesla's new Safety Report shows Autopilot is nine times...Oct 22, 2025 — In Q3 2025, we recorded 1 crash for every 6.36 million...
5.
Source: arxiv.org
Link:https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.01515
6.
Source: arxiv.org
Link:https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.12675
7.
Source: nhtsa.gov
Link:https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-safety/automated-vehicles-safety
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Automated Vehicle SafetyGet info on automated driving systems, also referred to as automated vehicles and "self-driving" cars, and l...
8.
Source: reuters.com
Title: US ends probe into Tesla remote driving feature after
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-auto-safety-regulator-closes-probe-into-teslas-driver-assistance-feature-2026-04-06/
Source snippet
US ends probe into Tesla remote driving feature after...April 6, 2026 — 6 Apr 2026 — Tesla's driver-assistance and self-driving f...
Published: April 6, 2026
9.
Source: reuters.com
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-opens-probe-into-28-million-tesla-vehicles-over-traffic-violations-when-using-2025-10-09/
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US probes driver assistance software in 2.9 million Tesla...9 Oct 2025 — The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration...
10.
Source: reuters.com
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/nhtsa-contacts-tesla-robotaxi-issues-seen-online-videos-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-06-23/
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US safety agency contacts Tesla on robotaxi issues seen in...23 Jun 2025 — The probe covers 2.4 million Tesla vehicles equipped w...
11.
Source: nhtsa.gov
Link:https://www.nhtsa.gov/
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National Highway Traffic Safety AdministrationGet resources and info about staying safe on America's roads. And, find out if ther...
12.
Source: reuters.com
Title: tesla wants us withhold all answers robotaxi deployment public view 2025 06 23
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-wants-us-withhold-all-answers-robotaxi-deployment-public-view-2025-06-23/
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Tesla robotaxi launch: EV maker seeks to keep Texas data...23 Jun 2025 — The probe covers 2.4 million Tesla vehicles equipped with FSD t...
13.
Source: reuters.com
Title: us auto safety regulator opens probe into tesla vehicles with fsd 2026 03 19
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-auto-safety-regulator-opens-probe-into-tesla-vehicles-with-fsd-2026-03-19/
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US agency upgrades probe into 3.2 million Tesla vehicles...19 Mar 2026 — Nine crashes linked to Tesla's FSD system, including one fatal...
14.
Source: reuters.com
Title: Exclusive: Tesla faces EU skepticism over automated
Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-faces-eu-skepticism-over-automated-driving-tech-records-show-2026-05-05/
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May 5, 2026 — Exclusive: Tesla faces EU skepticism over automated-driving tech, records show · EU regulators voice safety concerns over F...
Published: May 5, 2026
15.
Source: arxiv.org
Link:https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.06187
Source snippet
A note on Tesla's revised safety report crash ratesby N Goodall · 2023 · Cited by 4 — Abstract: Between June 2018 and December 2023, Tesl...
Published: June 2018
16.
Source: youtube.com
Title: Debunking Tesla Autopilot Attack – Truth Revealed!
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyLUKAFxujI
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Tesla Crash Lab | Data-Driven Safety...
17.
Source: youtube.com
Title: Tesla Crash Lab | Data-Driven Safety
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KR2N_Q8ep8
18.
Source: electrek.co
Title: teslas autopilot safety data is getting worse
Link:https://electrek.co/2025/10/22/teslas-autopilot-safety-data-is-getting-worse/
Source snippet
Tesla's Autopilot safety data is getting worseOct 22, 2025 — In the 3rd quarter, we recorded one crash for every 6.36 million miles drive...
19.
Source: axios.com
Link:https://www.axios.com/2017/12/15/nhtsa-doesnt-recall-tesla-autopilot-after-crash-1513299998
Source snippet
The crash occurred nearly two years prior, with data showing that the Autopilot was engaged and the Automatic Emergency Braking system fa...
20.
Source: abcnews.com
Title: Tesla self-driving crash reports prompt NHTSA investigation
Link:https://abcnews.com/Business/tesla-driving-crash-reports-prompt-nhtsa-investigation/story?id=114922283
Source snippet
October 18, 2024 — The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating some 2.4 million Tesla vehicles after reports of s...
Published: October 18, 2024
21.
Source: electrek.co
Link:https://electrek.co/2026/05/28/tesla-fsd-safety-stats-misleading-reuters-investigation/
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Tesla CFO...Read more...
22.
Source: reddit.com
Title: nhtsa analysis of tesla autopilot crashes
Link:https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1cdxzcd/nhtsa_analysis_of_tesla_autopilot_crashes/
Source snippet
confirms at...It shows one fatality between Aug 2022 and Aug 2023. They also add the caveat that Tesla's crash reporting is not fully ac...
23.
Source: facebook.com
Link:https://www.facebook.com/Reuters/posts/tesla-exaggerates-the-safety-of-its-full-self-driving-technology-by-comparing-a-/1562446675746059/
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a rate of crashes in FSD- piloted Teslas that triggered airbag...Read more...
24.
Source: facebook.com
Link:https://www.facebook.com/groups/teslaownersaustralia/posts/1118093500312724/
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Tesla autopilot outperforms human drivers in safetyTesla's Q2 2025 Vehicle Safety Report cites one crash every 6.69 million miles with Au...
25.
Source: panterlaw.com
Link:https://panterlaw.com/nhtsa-tesla-full-self-driving-investigation/
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NHTSA Escalates Tesla Full Self-Driving Investigation Over...Mar 31, 2026 — The agency suspects Tesla might be under-reporting crashes d...
26.
Source: philkoopman.substack.com
Title: new tesla fsd safety data
Link:https://philkoopman.substack.com/p/new-tesla-fsd-safety-data
Source snippet
Tesla FSD safety dataTesla excludes crashes in which a vehicle might be towed but no airbag (or other one-shot active safety) device is d...
27.
Source: chicagolawyer.com
Link:https://www.chicagolawyer.com/blog/tesla-autopilot-fatality-rate/
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Tesla Autopilot Fatality Rate | Free Consult | Staver LawCompared to the overall US rate of one fatality every 94 million miles, Tesla cl...
28.
Source: reutersconnect.com
Link:https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/teslas-robotaxi-rollout-features-long-wait-times-in-texas-cities-amid-safety-concerns/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1ZBOTY2MTAyMDQyMDI2UlAx/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX0xWQTAwMTk2NjEwMjA0MjAyNlJQMQ
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Tesla's robotaxi rollout features long wait times in Texas...12 May 2026 — Tesla's robotaxi rollout features long wait times in Texas ci...
Published: May 2026
29.
Source: forbes.com
Link:https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2025/02/11/tesla-again-has-the-highest-accident-rate-of-any-auto-brand/
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Tesla Again Has The Highest Accident Rate Of Any Auto...Feb 11, 2025 — Nationally, Tesla drivers had 26.67 accidents per 1,000 drivers...
30.
Source: wardsauto.com
Link:https://www.wardsauto.com/news/archive-auto-nhtsa-opens-investigation-tesla-fsd-odi-crashes-autopilot/730353/
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NHTSA opens safety probe for up to 2.4M Tesla vehiclesOct 22, 2024 — Since June 2022, the NHTSA's ODI identified at least 13 crashes of...
Published: June 2022
31.
Source: digitaltoday.co.kr
Link:https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/59292/tesla-fsd-safety-claims-questioned-by-reuters-survey
32.
Source: theguardian.com
Title: tesla cars self driving us regulators investigation
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/09/tesla-cars-self-driving-us-regulators-investigation
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US regulators launch investigation into self-driving Teslas...10 Oct 2025 — Tesla's FSD, which is more advanced than its Autopilot syste...
33.
Source: heise.de
Link:https://www.heise.de/en/news/Tesla-FSD-Media-report-questions-safety-promises-11312204.html
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34.
Source: teslaacessories.com
Title: tesla latest safety data shows autopilot 9 times safer than human drivers
Link:https://www.teslaacessories.com/ro/blogs/news/tesla-latest-safety-data-shows-autopilot-9-times-safer-than-human-drivers?srsltid=AfmBOooyyaybGf2YWi4thJjB9X_S8y1fiRooYN7HCCHOevYP4Ebm71Ox
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Tesla Latest Safety Data Shows Autopilot 9 Times Safer...Oct 30, 2025 — Tesla's Q3 2025 safety report documents Autopilot achieving one...
35.
Source: teslaacessories.com
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Tesla Latest Safety Data Shows Autopilot 9 Times Safer...Oct 30, 2025 — This comparison produces the headline "9x safer" claim—6.36 mill...
36.
Source: discussion.fool.com
Title: tesla fsd safety statistics flawed or fabricated
Link:https://discussion.fool.com/t/tesla-fsd-safety-statistics-flawed-or-fabricated/124933
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FSD Safety Statistics-Flawed or Fabricated?2 days ago — Reuters investigation reveals Tesla's FSD safety statistics are built on flawed m...
37.
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Tesla Autopilot Accident Statistics and Other Driver-Assist...In the 10-month period, cars with advanced driver-assist systems were invo...
38.
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39.
Source: dawnproject.com
Title: can we trust teslas crash reporting statistics
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Tesla's own statistics show that you are five times more...Aug 2, 2023 — Tesla Full Self-Driving is five times more likely to have crash...
40.
Source: Wikipedia
Title: Tesla Autopilot
Link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot
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Tesla AutopilotTesla Autopilot is an advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) developed by Tesla, Inc. that provides partial vehicle a...
41.
Source: news.ycombinator.com
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42.
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43.
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Title: tesla vehicle safety report shows autopilot crashes less than u s average.140023
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44.
Source: safetyresearch.net
Title: NHTSA Autosteer Safety Claim
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45.
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46.
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47.
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Additional References
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which is much older than the average TeslaTesla exaggerates the safety of its 'Full Self-Driving' technology by comparing a rate of crash...
49.
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Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVpeTVwqmMI
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50.
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Title: 382924785 A note on Tesla’s revised safety report crash rates
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ResearchGate(PDF) A Note on Tesla's revised safety report crash ratesBetween June 2018 and December 2023, Tesla released quarterly safety...
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Link:https://opposite-lock.com/post/1906760
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ring a rate of crashes in FSD-piloted Teslas that triggered airbag deployments...Read more...
52.
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Link:https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/jim86m/i_graphed_teslas_autopilot_safety_report_data_to/
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That is tiny compared to the over 3T miles driven yearly in the US...Read more...
53.
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Link:https://www.facebook.com/Techmeme/posts/former-tesla-data-labelers-say-fsd-relies-on-laborious-mapping-for-hazards-crash/1431682888994021/
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54.
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r active safety restraint, whereas "US drivers" counts anything...Read more...
55.
Source: williammattar.com
Title: new govt data on tesla self driving car safety
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New Government Data Sheds Light on Tesla Self-Driving...5 Apr 2023 — Tesla cars were 50% less likely to have accidents than comparable g...
56.
Source: electrek.co
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Musk falsely claims Tesla FSD is 10X safer than humans...8 Apr 2026 — Elon Musk claims Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving' is 10X safer than hu...
57.
Source: instagram.com
Link:https://www.instagram.com/p/DY4rNMUIJ3B/
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a comparison error that inflates results by roughly 3x.Read more...
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