Within Safety Claims
When Safety Statistics Compare the Wrong Things
A favorable safety statistic can mislead when the comparison groups do not measure the same kind of crash or driving condition.
On this page
- Why aggregate crash numbers can look reassuring
- How mismatched datasets change the claim
- What supervision warnings reveal about autonomy claims
Page outline Jump by section
Introduction
Tesla’s safety statistics are frequently cited in debates about driver-assistance systems, but the key question is not whether the numbers are large or small. The critical question is whether the datasets being compared measure the same thing. Within discussions of logical fallacies and product-safety responses, this matters because an impressive safety figure can function as a red herring if it shifts attention away from whether the comparison itself is valid.
Tesla has repeatedly published figures suggesting that vehicles using Autopilot or Full Self-Driving (Supervised) experience crashes far less often than average U.S. drivers. Critics, however, argue that some of these comparisons combine different crash definitions, different driving environments, and different levels of driver involvement. When the comparison groups are not aligned, the resulting safety claim may sound persuasive while providing little evidence about the question being asked. [Tesla]tesla.comTesla refers…Read more… [Reuters]reuters.comReutersWhy Tesla's AI trainers don't trust its self-driving tech2 days ago — The review found several invalid data comparisons underlying…
Why Aggregate Crash Numbers Can Look Reassuring
Tesla’s public safety reports often present crash rates as “miles driven between crashes” and compare those figures with national crash statistics. On the surface, the difference can appear dramatic. For example, Tesla has reported millions of miles between crashes when Autopilot is engaged, compared with lower mileage figures derived from broader U.S. crash data. [TESLARATI]teslarati.comTESLARATITesla's new Safety Report shows Autopilot is nine times…Oct 22, 2025 — In Q3 2025, we recorded 1 crash for every 6.36 million…
The problem is that aggregate numbers hide important differences:
- Autopilot is used heavily on controlled-access motorways, which are generally safer than urban roads.
- Drivers who purchase and activate advanced driver-assistance features may differ from the average driving population.
- Weather, traffic density, vehicle age, and road type can vary substantially between comparison groups.
- Different datasets may count different kinds of crashes.
A favourable aggregate statistic can therefore create the impression that one factor—such as driver-assistance software—is solely responsible for the observed difference when multiple other factors may contribute. Researchers have long noted that meaningful safety comparisons require matching exposure conditions as closely as possible. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash RatesarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash Rates
From a logical-fallacy perspective, the risk is that the audience focuses on the reassuring headline number rather than examining whether the underlying comparison answers the original safety question.
How Mismatched Datasets Change the Claim
The most significant criticism of Tesla’s recent safety claims concerns the definition of a crash.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving safety page explains that its “major collision” metric counts crashes involving airbag deployment or other irreversible restraint activation. In other words, the metric focuses on relatively severe crashes rather than all crashes. [Tesla]tesla.comTesla refers…Read more…
Researchers interviewed by Reuters argued that Tesla then compared those severe-crash figures with broader government crash datasets that include many less severe collisions. According to Reuters’ review, multiple safety researchers considered this an invalid comparison because the numerator and denominator were not measuring equivalent events. They characterised the resulting claim as potentially misleading because the datasets were not aligned. [Reuters]reuters.comUS ends probe into Tesla remote driving feature afterReutersUS ends probe into Tesla remote driving feature after…April 6, 2026 — 6 Apr 2026 — Tesla's driver-assistance and self-driving f…
The issue is not merely technical. A comparison can change meaning depending on what is counted:
QuestionDataset ADataset BHow often do severe crashes occur?Airbag-deployment crashesAirbag-deployment crashesHow often do any crashes occur?All crashesAll crashesProblematic comparisonAirbag-deployment crashesAll crashes
If one side counts only severe collisions while the other counts collisions of many different severities, the resulting ratio may exaggerate apparent safety performance.
Researchers examining Tesla’s revised safety reporting methods have raised similar concerns about changing crash definitions over time and excluding incidents that do not meet particular thresholds. They argue that methodological changes can significantly affect reported crash rates and make historical comparisons difficult. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash RatesarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash Rates
This is a classic example of how a statistic can be numerically accurate yet rhetorically misleading. The fallacy does not require fabricated data; it can arise when unlike quantities are presented as though they were directly comparable.
Why Similar Conditions Matter More Than Large Numbers
A useful safety comparison attempts to match vehicles, roads, crash types, and operating conditions.
One reason researchers emphasise this point is that safety outcomes depend heavily on context. A vehicle driven primarily on motorways faces a different risk profile from one operating on city streets. Likewise, comparing supervised driver-assistance systems with average national driving data may obscure differences in driver responsibility and environment. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash RatesarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash Rates
The contrast becomes clearer when looking at examples of safety research that explicitly try to align datasets. Published analyses of automated-driving performance have attempted to match road types, locations, vehicle categories, crash severities, and crash classifications before drawing conclusions. Researchers describe such alignment as necessary for meaningful benchmarking. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash RatesarXiv A Note on Tesla's Revised Safety Report Crash Rates
Whether one agrees with the conclusions of those studies or not, the methodological principle is important: comparable claims require comparable data.
Without that alignment, a large safety advantage may reflect differences in exposure rather than differences in technology.
What Supervision Warnings Reveal About Autonomy Claims
Another source of confusion arises from the distinction between supervised driver-assistance and true autonomous driving.
Tesla’s systems require human supervision and intervention when necessary. Regulators have repeatedly emphasised that currently deployed systems still depend on driver attention. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) also cautions against treating today’s assistance systems as equivalent to fully autonomous vehicles. [NHTSA]nhtsa.govNHTSAAutomated Vehicle SafetyGet info on automated driving systems, also referred to as automated vehicles and "self-driving" cars, and l…
This matters because safety claims are sometimes interpreted as evidence that the vehicle itself is driving safely without meaningful human involvement. Yet if a system’s safety performance depends partly on attentive human oversight, the statistic does not necessarily demonstrate autonomous capability.
Supervision warnings therefore reveal an important distinction:
- A supervised system may achieve a certain safety outcome.
- That outcome does not automatically prove that the software could achieve the same result without human monitoring.
- Crash-rate statistics alone cannot establish how responsibility was shared between driver and system.
This distinction has become increasingly relevant as regulators continue investigating crashes and reported traffic-law violations involving Tesla driver-assistance systems. The existence of such investigations does not prove a system is unsafe, but it does show why careful interpretation of safety statistics remains necessary. [Reuters]reuters.comReutersUS probes driver assistance software in 2.9 million Tesla…9 Oct 2025 — The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration… [Reuters]reuters.comReutersUS safety agency contacts Tesla on robotaxi issues seen in…23 Jun 2025 — The probe covers 2.4 million Tesla vehicles equipped w…
The Logical Fallacy Behind the Numbers
The central fallacy is not that safety statistics are useless. Safety statistics are essential. The problem arises when a favourable number is treated as an answer to a different question.
If critics ask whether a driver-assistance system reduces crashes under particular conditions, a response based on non-equivalent datasets may redirect attention from the validity of the comparison to the impressiveness of the result. The audience hears “our vehicles crash less often” and may stop asking whether the crashes being counted, the roads being driven, and the drivers being compared are actually comparable.
In that sense, mismatched crash comparisons can operate as a sophisticated red herring. The discussion shifts from “Are these equivalent safety measures?” to “Look how good this safety number is.” For evidence-based safety assessment, the first question must be answered before the second has meaning.
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Further Reading
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Endnotes
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Source: tesla.com
Link: https://www.tesla.com/fsd/safetySource snippet
Tesla refers...Read more...
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Source: reuters.com
Link: https://www.reuters.com/investigations/why-teslas-ai-trainers-dont-trust-its-self-driving-tech-or-its-safety-stats-2026-05-28/Source snippet
ReutersWhy Tesla's AI trainers don't trust its self-driving tech2 days ago — The review found several invalid data comparisons underlying...
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Source: arxiv.org
Title: arXiv A Note on Tesla’s Revised Safety Report Crash Rates
Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.06187 -
Source: teslarati.com
Link: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-new-safety-report-autopilot-nine-times-safer-humans-q3-2025/Source snippet
TESLARATITesla's new Safety Report shows Autopilot is nine times...Oct 22, 2025 — In Q3 2025, we recorded 1 crash for every 6.36 million...
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Source: arxiv.org
Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.01515 -
Source: arxiv.org
Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.12675 -
Source: nhtsa.gov
Link: https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-safety/automated-vehicles-safetySource snippet
NHTSAAutomated Vehicle SafetyGet info on automated driving systems, also referred to as automated vehicles and "self-driving" cars, and l...
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Source: reuters.com
Title: US ends probe into Tesla remote driving feature after
Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-auto-safety-regulator-closes-probe-into-teslas-driver-assistance-feature-2026-04-06/Source snippet
ReutersUS ends probe into Tesla remote driving feature after...April 6, 2026 — 6 Apr 2026 — Tesla's driver-assistance and self-driving f...
Published: April 6, 2026
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Source: reuters.com
Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-opens-probe-into-28-million-tesla-vehicles-over-traffic-violations-when-using-2025-10-09/Source snippet
ReutersUS probes driver assistance software in 2.9 million Tesla...9 Oct 2025 — The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration...
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Source: reuters.com
Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/nhtsa-contacts-tesla-robotaxi-issues-seen-online-videos-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-06-23/Source snippet
ReutersUS safety agency contacts Tesla on robotaxi issues seen in...23 Jun 2025 — The probe covers 2.4 million Tesla vehicles equipped w...
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Source: nhtsa.gov
Link: https://www.nhtsa.gov/Source snippet
NHTSA | National Highway Traffic Safety AdministrationGet resources and info about staying safe on America's roads. And, find out if ther...
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Source: reuters.com
Title: tesla wants us withhold all answers robotaxi deployment public view 2025 06 23
Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-wants-us-withhold-all-answers-robotaxi-deployment-public-view-2025-06-23/Source snippet
Tesla robotaxi launch: EV maker seeks to keep Texas data...23 Jun 2025 — The probe covers 2.4 million Tesla vehicles equipped with FSD t...
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Source: reuters.com
Title: us auto safety regulator opens probe into tesla vehicles with fsd 2026 03 19
Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-auto-safety-regulator-opens-probe-into-tesla-vehicles-with-fsd-2026-03-19/Source snippet
US agency upgrades probe into 3.2 million Tesla vehicles...19 Mar 2026 — Nine crashes linked to Tesla's FSD system, including one fatal...
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Source: reuters.com
Title: Exclusive: Tesla faces EU skepticism over automated
Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-faces-eu-skepticism-over-automated-driving-tech-records-show-2026-05-05/Source snippet
May 5, 2026 — Exclusive: Tesla faces EU skepticism over automated-driving tech, records show · EU regulators voice safety concerns over F...
Published: May 5, 2026
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Source: arxiv.org
Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.06187Source snippet
A note on Tesla's revised safety report crash ratesby N Goodall · 2023 · Cited by 4 — Abstract: Between June 2018 and December 2023, Tesl...
Published: June 2018
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Source: youtube.com
Title: Debunking Tesla Autopilot Attack – Truth Revealed!
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyLUKAFxujISource snippet
Tesla Crash Lab | Data-Driven Safety...
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Source: youtube.com
Title: Tesla Crash Lab | Data-Driven Safety
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KR2N_Q8ep8 -
Source: electrek.co
Title: teslas autopilot safety data is getting worse
Link: https://electrek.co/2025/10/22/teslas-autopilot-safety-data-is-getting-worse/Source snippet
Tesla's Autopilot safety data is getting worseOct 22, 2025 — In the 3rd quarter, we recorded one crash for every 6.36 million miles drive...
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Source: axios.com
Link: https://www.axios.com/2017/12/15/nhtsa-doesnt-recall-tesla-autopilot-after-crash-1513299998Source snippet
The crash occurred nearly two years prior, with data showing that the Autopilot was engaged and the Automatic Emergency Braking system fa...
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Source: abcnews.com
Title: Tesla self-driving crash reports prompt NHTSA investigation
Link: https://abcnews.com/Business/tesla-driving-crash-reports-prompt-nhtsa-investigation/story?id=114922283Source snippet
October 18, 2024 — The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating some 2.4 million Tesla vehicles after reports of s...
Published: October 18, 2024
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Source: electrek.co
Link: https://electrek.co/2026/05/28/tesla-fsd-safety-stats-misleading-reuters-investigation/Source snippet
Tesla CFO...Read more...
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Source: reddit.com
Title: nhtsa analysis of tesla autopilot crashes
Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1cdxzcd/nhtsa_analysis_of_tesla_autopilot_crashes/Source snippet
confirms at...It shows one fatality between Aug 2022 and Aug 2023. They also add the caveat that Tesla's crash reporting is not fully ac...
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Source: facebook.com
Link: https://www.facebook.com/Reuters/posts/tesla-exaggerates-the-safety-of-its-full-self-driving-technology-by-comparing-a-/1562446675746059/Source snippet
a rate of crashes in FSD- piloted Teslas that triggered airbag...Read more...
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Source: facebook.com
Link: https://www.facebook.com/groups/teslaownersaustralia/posts/1118093500312724/Source snippet
Tesla autopilot outperforms human drivers in safetyTesla's Q2 2025 Vehicle Safety Report cites one crash every 6.69 million miles with Au...
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Source: panterlaw.com
Link: https://panterlaw.com/nhtsa-tesla-full-self-driving-investigation/Source snippet
NHTSA Escalates Tesla Full Self-Driving Investigation Over...Mar 31, 2026 — The agency suspects Tesla might be under-reporting crashes d...
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Source: philkoopman.substack.com
Title: new tesla fsd safety data
Link: https://philkoopman.substack.com/p/new-tesla-fsd-safety-dataSource snippet
Tesla FSD safety dataTesla excludes crashes in which a vehicle might be towed but no airbag (or other one-shot active safety) device is d...
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Source: chicagolawyer.com
Link: https://www.chicagolawyer.com/blog/tesla-autopilot-fatality-rate/Source snippet
Tesla Autopilot Fatality Rate | Free Consult | Staver LawCompared to the overall US rate of one fatality every 94 million miles, Tesla cl...
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Source: reutersconnect.com
Link: https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/teslas-robotaxi-rollout-features-long-wait-times-in-texas-cities-amid-safety-concerns/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1ZBOTY2MTAyMDQyMDI2UlAx/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX0xWQTAwMTk2NjEwMjA0MjAyNlJQMQSource snippet
Tesla's robotaxi rollout features long wait times in Texas...12 May 2026 — Tesla's robotaxi rollout features long wait times in Texas ci...
Published: May 2026
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Source: forbes.com
Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2025/02/11/tesla-again-has-the-highest-accident-rate-of-any-auto-brand/Source snippet
Tesla Again Has The Highest Accident Rate Of Any Auto...Feb 11, 2025 — Nationally, Tesla drivers had 26.67 accidents per 1,000 drivers...
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Source: wardsauto.com
Link: https://www.wardsauto.com/news/archive-auto-nhtsa-opens-investigation-tesla-fsd-odi-crashes-autopilot/730353/Source snippet
NHTSA opens safety probe for up to 2.4M Tesla vehiclesOct 22, 2024 — Since June 2022, the NHTSA's ODI identified at least 13 crashes of...
Published: June 2022
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Source: digitaltoday.co.kr
Link: https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/59292/tesla-fsd-safety-claims-questioned-by-reuters-survey -
Source: theguardian.com
Title: tesla cars self driving us regulators investigation
Link: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/09/tesla-cars-self-driving-us-regulators-investigationSource snippet
US regulators launch investigation into self-driving Teslas...10 Oct 2025 — Tesla's FSD, which is more advanced than its Autopilot syste...
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Source: heise.de
Link: https://www.heise.de/en/news/Tesla-FSD-Media-report-questions-safety-promises-11312204.htmlSource snippet
o a report, however, Tesla used distorting comparison values...
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Source: teslaacessories.com
Title: tesla latest safety data shows autopilot 9 times safer than human drivers
Link: https://www.teslaacessories.com/ro/blogs/news/tesla-latest-safety-data-shows-autopilot-9-times-safer-than-human-drivers?srsltid=AfmBOooyyaybGf2YWi4thJjB9X_S8y1fiRooYN7HCCHOevYP4Ebm71OxSource snippet
Tesla Latest Safety Data Shows Autopilot 9 Times Safer...Oct 30, 2025 — Tesla's Q3 2025 safety report documents Autopilot achieving one...
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Source: teslaacessories.com
Link: https://www.teslaacessories.com/blogs/news/tesla-latest-safety-data-shows-autopilot-9-times-safer-than-human-drivers?srsltid=AfmBOooeik7VUEjTUwnn_aDlakW94Cqn1yrsB1XpI8LiCLPxf9NpOuSySource snippet
Tesla Latest Safety Data Shows Autopilot 9 Times Safer...Oct 30, 2025 — This comparison produces the headline "9x safer" claim—6.36 mill...
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Source: discussion.fool.com
Title: tesla fsd safety statistics flawed or fabricated
Link: https://discussion.fool.com/t/tesla-fsd-safety-statistics-flawed-or-fabricated/124933Source snippet
FSD Safety Statistics-Flawed or Fabricated?2 days ago — Reuters investigation reveals Tesla's FSD safety statistics are built on flawed m...
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Source: hamparyan.com
Link: https://www.hamparyan.com/tesla-autopilot-accident-statistics/Source snippet
Tesla Autopilot Accident Statistics and Other Driver-Assist...In the 10-month period, cars with advanced driver-assist systems were invo...
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Source: scribd.com
Link: https://www.scribd.com/document/792763623/NHTSA-s-Findings-On-Tesla-Autopilot-FeatureSource snippet
more...
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Source: dawnproject.com
Title: can we trust teslas crash reporting statistics
Link: https://dawnproject.com/can-we-trust-teslas-crash-reporting-statistics/Source snippet
Tesla's own statistics show that you are five times more...Aug 2, 2023 — Tesla Full Self-Driving is five times more likely to have crash...
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Source: Wikipedia
Title: Tesla Autopilot
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_AutopilotSource snippet
Tesla AutopilotTesla Autopilot is an advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) developed by Tesla, Inc. that provides partial vehicle a...
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Source: news.ycombinator.com
Link: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13437905Source snippet
NHTSA report states the accidents they count occur 0.8 times per million miles.... comparing crash rates in vehicles before and after Au...
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Source: youtube.com
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV36S3ygvksSource snippet
ers were using autopilot technology...
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Source: teslamotorsclub.com
Title: tesla vehicle safety report shows autopilot crashes less than u s average.140023
Link: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-vehicle-safety-report-shows-autopilot-crashes-less-than-u-s-average.140023/Source snippet
Tesla Vehicle Safety Report Shows Autopilot Crashes Less...Jan 10, 2019 — Tesla registered one accident for every 2.91 million miles dri...
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Source: safetyresearch.net
Title: NHTSA Autosteer Safety Claim
Link: https://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdfSource snippet
NHTSA's Implausible Safety Claim for Tesla's Autosteer...Feb 8, 2019 — The calculation of accurate crash rates of this type depend on re...
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Source: insideevs.com
Title: tesla safety autopilot crash 2022q4
Link: https://insideevs.com/news/656650/tesla-safety-autopilot-crash-2022q4/Source snippet
Tesla Autopilot Crash Data For Q4 2022: It's Better Than A...Mar 10, 2023 — According to Tesla, the number of miles driven per one accid...
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Source: threads.com
Link: https://www.threads.com/%40firerock31/post/DY4q1yoFMlP/we-all-suspected-teslas-safety-stats-were-off-and-reuters-confirmed-it-tesla/Source snippet
We all suspected Tesla's safety stats were off, and Reuters...2 days ago — We all suspected Tesla's safety stats were off, and Reuters c...
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Source: aiweekly.co
Link: https://aiweekly.co/alerts/tesla-fsd-safety-stats-inflated-3x-researchers-findSource snippet
es misleading marketing that inflates actual performance by roughly 3x.Read more...
Additional References
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Source: x.com
Link: https://x.com/Reuters/status/2060190642073174212Source snippet
which is much older than the average TeslaTesla exaggerates the safety of its 'Full Self-Driving' technology by comparing a rate of crash...
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Source: youtube.com
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVpeTVwqmMISource snippet
US probes Tesla's Full Self-Driving software after fatal crash...US regulators are opening an investigation into 2.4 million Tesla vehic...
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Source: researchgate.net
Title: 382924785 A note on Tesla’s revised safety report crash rates
Link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/382924785_A_note_on_Tesla%27s_revised_safety_report_crash_ratesSource snippet
ResearchGate(PDF) A Note on Tesla's revised safety report crash ratesBetween June 2018 and December 2023, Tesla released quarterly safety...
Published: June 2018
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Source: opposite-lock.com
Link: https://opposite-lock.com/post/1906760Source snippet
ring a rate of crashes in FSD-piloted Teslas that triggered airbag deployments...Read more...
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Source: reddit.com
Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/jim86m/i_graphed_teslas_autopilot_safety_report_data_to/Source snippet
That is tiny compared to the over 3T miles driven yearly in the US...Read more...
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Source: facebook.com
Link: https://www.facebook.com/Techmeme/posts/former-tesla-data-labelers-say-fsd-relies-on-laborious-mapping-for-hazards-crash/1431682888994021/Source snippet
en times less likely to be involved in a crash than the average...Read more...
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Source: x.com
Link: https://x.com/NoahGoodall/status/1948768936075424179Source snippet
r active safety restraint, whereas "US drivers" counts anything...Read more...
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Source: williammattar.com
Title: new govt data on tesla self driving car safety
Link: https://williammattar.com/blog/electric-vehicles/new-govt-data-on-tesla-self-driving-car-safety/Source snippet
New Government Data Sheds Light on Tesla Self-Driving...5 Apr 2023 — Tesla cars were 50% less likely to have accidents than comparable g...
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Source: electrek.co
Title: The data Tesla has released doesn’t support
Link: https://electrek.co/2026/04/08/musk-tesla-fsd-10x-safer-claim-doesnt-hold-up/Source snippet
Musk falsely claims Tesla FSD is 10X safer than humans...8 Apr 2026 — Elon Musk claims Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving' is 10X safer than hu...
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Source: instagram.com
Link: https://www.instagram.com/p/DY4rNMUIJ3B/Source snippet
a comparison error that inflates results by roughly 3x.Read more...
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